Pass or Play: A Data Driven Approach to Family Feud
I have loved watching Family Feud for as long as I can remember. I have long told my family that we need to find our way onto the show and adhere to one important strategy: Pass, pass, pass. Forget the 15 minutes of fame and chit chat with the host, if we steal every round I hope the cameras only see me in Fast Money. But, as I started to think about it more and more it’s not as simple as just automatically deferring. So, I sat down and watched 25 randomly sampled episodes of Family Feud I found of YouTube (thanks social distancing and shout out pyramidfan90 on YouTube) which gave me 100 face offs to go through and analyze. Do the numbers say pass or play? Let’s find out.
Initial Thoughts and Method
This initial passing strategy was based on my own watching of the show both in Australia and America and how infrequently families that choose to play clean sweep the board. But, it’s not quite that simple. Families that play can also win the round if the opposing team fails to steal. So, if a family chooses to play they have two avenues to winning the round opposed to only one if they pass (steal). Also, even if the team that plays does not sweep the board each answer they tick off makes it more and more difficult for the opposing team to steal as there are less answers available.
Is it as simple as just pass or play? Are there certain situations it’s better to pass than others? How does the number of answers on the board affect the decision? With many of these questions flooding my mind I figured I would just sit down, watch and see what happens. I created a very simple table to keep track of all of the pass/play decisions and their eventual outcomes and it looked a little something like this.
I kept track of the overall sample of 100, but also divided them based on how many answers were on the board (4-8). The most common scenarios were 4 and 6 answer boards which occurred almost 60% of the time. From these tables I sought to firstly answer the following questions:
- Pass/Play % — how often the teams chose to pass or play.
- Sweep % — how often the teams swept the board.
- Average board left — expressed as a percentage, what was the average amount of answers left on the board if the team failed to sweep.
- W/L % — how often teams that chose to play won or lost the round.
- Steal % — at what rate did teams successfully steal when given the opportunity.
Results
Out of the one hundred face offs I watched, can you guess how many times the teams passed? Nope, less. No, seriously, less. Twice. Only TWICE teams deferred and decided to forgo their nauseating conversations with Mr. Harvey. They instead chose to incessantly scream “GOOD ANSWER!!!” when their uncle they don’t even really like that spat out an incoherent answer that never change a chance of being on the board.
OK, so most teams decide to play. Now what? Well how often do they sweep? I’ll give you a hint… not very often. Exactly 14 times was the board clean swept, good for 14%, with 8 of these sweeps happening on 4 answer so the likelihood of sweeping a big board is very slim. I hear what you’re saying, “Nick, why on Earth would teams play this much if they’re just going to give the other family a chance to have the last laugh?” See, now you understand my conundrum. Let’s keep the ball rolling.
Like I mentioned earlier teams that choose to play actually find themselves with two ways to win a round — a clean sweep or a failed steal. And now we know teams are not good at getting sweeps. So how are they at executing steals? Well, just OK. Teams were 44/86 on steal opportunities, which was every situation other than a sweep and came out to 51%.
I have to admit for a guy with a pass, pass, pass mentality stealing can be difficult sometimes. Sometimes there’s only one or two answers available and they can be very out there. To evaluate this like I mentioned earlier I calculated the average board left when teams went to steal. I essentially added 86 fractions together (thanks Excel) and it spat out the average board remaining in steal situations was 41%. So, on average teams are looking at under half the board when they go to steal and are still stealing at a 51% clip. Pretty good.
But, when you add back in the 14 clean sweeps teams that chose to play won 57% of the time. So just play right? More often than not you’re going to win. Maybe, yes, but we’re here to evaluate the nitty gritty and painstakingly over analyze a fun game show where players certainly do not think this hard. One situation I can advocate playing in is a 4 answer board. These usually occur in the last round and I can understand why teams would want the ball in their hands with the game on the line. I would especially play if two answers are already gone coming out of the face off. So you have three strikes to come up with two answers. Those are good odds.
I began to think. I already have a predisposition towards passing and I know the numbers show teams do not sweep very often — especially when there is more than 4 answers on the board. Well, what happens when a team chooses to play and then fails to clear more than half the board? Is that the make or break threshold? We know that on average teams in steal situations are looking at roughly 40% available answers left, but what if that number was more than 50%?
Are you still following along? I promise we’re almost there.
Out of the 86 steal situations, 36 were with half or more answers still remaining on the board. In this situation teams stole at 70% rate. 25/36 when they were asked to steal and 50+ percent of answers remained. That is an alarmingly high number. Is this a case of confirmation bias as I slaved over the numbers to find a reason to steal? Maybe, but the numbers do not lie. If you cannot clear more than half the board you’re likely in some trouble. If teams choose to play and clear more than half the board there winning percentage more than doubles to 62%. I think we found our boom/bust point.
This became especially important in 4 and 5 answer situations. The steal percentage in this scenarios regardless of how many answers were left on the board was 60% compared to right around 45% for boards of 6 to 8 answers (and 75% steal rate with half or more answers remaining). So if you choose to play when there’s only 4 or 5 answers you’d really hope to sweep otherwise it’s getting stolen more often than not.
Will all of this information change the minds of those out there who end up on Family Feud to play more analytically when pressed the ever frightening “pass or play” questions? Probably not. People just want to obnoxiously excited and get their face on TV. As I’m writing this I also realize my research neglects the strengths and weaknesses of some family’s knowledge. Maybe “name something you don’t want to hear your partner say in bed” is right up your family’s ally. I don’t judge.
Conclusion
So what’s the verdict?
Well, the numbers are clear. If you think you can clear more than half the answers you should probably play. But, if you don’t think you can and more importantly you don’t think the opposing team can clear more than half the board then we are in prime steal territory ladies and gentleman. 1400 words later and here we are. I am what I am and what I always will be: a pass first Family Feuder. Hopefully you’ll join me on this new movement as we revolutionize the game.
P.S. The two teams that I saw that chose to pass? Yeah you already know they won those rounds convincingly.
